The race to the Kentucky Derby is heating up, and the rankings are shifting faster than a thoroughbred at full gallop. Silent Tactic has stormed into the sixth spot in the National Thoroughbred Racing Association's Top 3-Year-Old Poll, proving that this season is anything but predictable. But here's where it gets controversial: is this young contender truly a Derby favorite, or just a flash in the pan? Let’s dive in.
With the Kentucky Derby (G1) prep races in full swing, the leaderboard is seeing some dramatic changes. John Oxley’s Silent Tactic (https://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/thoroughbred/silent-tactic/2023) made a bold statement with his commanding win in the Feb. 6 Southwest Stakes (G3), catapulting him into the spotlight. Trained by the legendary Mark Casse, this son of Tacitus (http://www.bloodhorse.com/stallion-register/stallions/172066) crossed the finish line 3 1/4 lengths ahead of the competition, earning him 25 Kentucky Derby qualifying points. That’s right—he’s now tied with Renegade (https://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/thoroughbred/renegade/2023), the Sam F. Davis Stakes winner owned by Robert and Lawana Low and Repole Stable, who also sits at 25 points. But is Silent Tactic’s rise sustainable, or will Renegade pull ahead in the coming weeks? And this is the part most people miss: the Derby isn’t just about speed—it’s about stamina, strategy, and a bit of luck.
At the top of the poll, Centennial Farm’s Nearly (https://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/thoroughbred/nearly/2023) holds a commanding lead with 13 first-place votes, thanks to his Holy Bull Stakes (G3) victory. Last year’s Remsen Stakes (G2) winner, Paladin (https://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/thoroughbred/paladin/2023), remains in second place with five first-place votes. Rounding out the top five are Renegade, Lecomte Stakes (G3) winner Golden Tempo (https://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/thoroughbred/golden-tempo/2023), and the 2025 Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes (G2) victor, Further Ado (https://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/thoroughbred/further-ado/2023). Each of these horses brings something unique to the table, but which one has what it takes to wear the roses in May?
Meanwhile, the NTRA’s Top Thoroughbred Poll saw minimal changes, with 2025 Horse of the Year Sovereignty (https://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/thoroughbred/sovereignty/2022) maintaining his throne with 23 first-place votes. Pegasus World Cup (G1) winner Skippylongstocking (https://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/thoroughbred/skippylongstocking/2019) holds steady in second place with three votes. The real story, however, is Nitrogen (https://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/thoroughbred/nitrogen/2022), whose stunning performance against older fillies and mares in the Feb. 7 Bayakoa Stakes (G3) at Oaklawn Park (https://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/racetracks/20/oaklawn-park) vaulted her from 10th to fifth place. Is she the dark horse to watch, or just a temporary blip on the radar?
As the dust settles on another week of racing, one thing is clear: this season is full of surprises. Will Silent Tactic continue his ascent, or will another contender steal the show? And what does this mean for the Derby favorites? Let us know your thoughts in the comments—who’s your pick to win it all? For the full Week 3 Rankings, check out the details here: https://www.ntra.com/silent-tactic-impresses-with-1-million-southwest-stakes-g3-win-and-moves-to-no-6-in-ntra-top-three-year-old-poll/.
