The future of South Africa's ruling party, the ANC, is shrouded in uncertainty as the race to succeed President Cyril Ramaphosa intensifies. A surprising twist has emerged, with billionaire Patrice Motsepe, a non-candidate, leading the charge and shaking up the political landscape.
The ANC's National General Council (NGC) meeting this week marked the beginning of the final chapter of Ramaphosa's presidency, with the party's elective conference set for 2027. But here's where it gets controversial: despite Motsepe's public declaration of non-candidacy, recent polling suggests otherwise.
According to the Social Research Foundation (SRF), Motsepe, a businessman and soccer boss, has emerged as a front-runner, surprising many. The SRF poll highlights a divide between general voters and ANC supporters, with Motsepe leading Deputy President Paul Mashatile among the former by five percentage points. However, within the ANC voter base, ANC Secretary-General Fikile Mbalula takes the lead over Mashatile by 15%.
And this is the part most people miss: the contest has also witnessed the rise of new, high-profile candidates. The ANC Women's League's push for a female president has brought forward Nomvula Mokonyane and Thoko Didiza, both Deputy Secretary-General and National Assembly Speaker, respectively. While their candidacies are not yet confirmed, insiders believe they are vying for the top position.
However, Mokonyane's involvement in the Bosasa scandal, as revealed by the State Capture Commission, adds a layer of complexity to her potential bid. Didiza, on the other hand, is seen as a reform candidate, having reportedly gained support from senior leaders, including President Ramaphosa himself.
Another contender is Kgosientsho Ramokgopa, the Electricity minister in the presidency, who has expressed interest in either the party president or deputy president role.
The succession discourse arrives at a sensitive time for the ANC, which lost its majority in the 2024 general elections and is now grappling with internal renewal. The NGC meeting this week saw a diminished ANC, with paid-up membership dropping to just over 540,000 from 1.4 million in 2020.
The party's organisational report presented at the NGC included a scathing self-critique, acknowledging the decline in state capacity and public trust during the era of state capture.
Despite the speculation, senior ANC figures, including national chairperson Gwede Mantashe, have attempted to downplay the succession talk, deeming it "premature." Mantashe, citing his age, has stated that he will not be contesting.
Electricity minister Ramokgopa has also declined to comment on a potential bid, choosing to focus on his current responsibilities.
As the ANC navigates this sensitive period, the question remains: who will ultimately succeed President Ramaphosa? The answer, it seems, is still up for grabs, with Motsepe's unexpected rise adding an intriguing layer to the political narrative.
What are your thoughts on the ANC's succession race? Do you think Motsepe's emergence as a front-runner will shape the party's future? Share your insights and predictions in the comments below!
